COVID Logic: Models were wrong...so let's use more
You ever see a number so big it just... breaks your brain? I’m talking about the claim that COVID-19 vaccines saved 3.2 million lives in the U.S. in just two years. It's a nice thought, and it got headlines everywhere. But before we celebrate, let's put on our skeptic hats and look at the other numbers. You know, the ones from the CDC.
The 3.2 Million-Life "What If"
So, a 2022 report from the Commonwealth Fund ran a simulation—a big, fancy "what if" machine. It crunched variables like variant surges and waning immunity and spat out that massive number: 3.2 million deaths averted and 18.5 million hospitalizations prevented (Vilches et al., 2022). Sounds amazing, right? A total win.
But then... you look at the actual death certificates.
A Dose of Reality (Courtesy of the CDC)
Here's where it gets weird. According to the CDC, total U.S. deaths in 2019 (pre-pandemic) were 2.85 million. In 2020 (the big first wave, mostly pre-vaccine), that number rose to 3.38 million.
In 2021, during the massive vaccine rollout, total deaths didn't plummet. They actually ticked up slightly to 3.46 million (Ahmad & Anderson, 2023).
Now, do the simple math. The model claims 3.2 million lives were saved between late 2020 and late 2022. If that's true, the model is implying that without the vax, we'd have seen something like (3.46M + 3.2M) = 6.66M+ deaths in 2021-2022. Does that... seem plausible? Or does it sound like the model's "what if" scenario was, shall we say, a tad apocalyptic?
Conclusion: Trust the Math, or the Math?
Look, this isn't about being for or against any one thing; it's about being pro-common-sense. When a model's projected catastrophe is literally double the worst reality we actually experienced, it's fair to ask questions.
It feels like we're caught in model-ception: using theoretical models to justify... well, the theoretical models. Sometimes, you just have to trust your gut (and the simple, real-world data).
Sources
- Vilches, T. N., et al. (2022). Estimating COVID-19 vaccinations’ impact on deaths, hospitalizations, and health care costs in the United States. The Commonwealth Fund. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2022/dec/estimating-covid-19-vaccinations-impact-deaths-hospitalizations-costs
- Ahmad, F. B. & Anderson, R. N. (2023). Mortality in the United States, 2021. NCHS Data Brief, No. 456. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db456.htm
